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Introduction
During the winter season of 1996-1997, residents of Juneau were polled for a research project conducted by the local National Weather Service office. The primary goal of the study was to ascertain the effectiveness of the format and terminology used by the National Weather Service (NWS) for writing public weather forecasts. Because of the city's remote location, the Juneau Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) has some unique problems and considerations in the weather reporting and forecast delivery process. With this in mind, questions were included in the project to help uncover shortcomings in the dissemination process. Other important goals of the project were to use the questionnaires as an educational tool for the public as well as for our forecasters, to promote greater awareness of what the NWS does in Juneau, and to solicit feedback from the public.
For decades, a debate has existed among weather forecasters as to how the probability of precipitation is most clearly conveyed to the public. Currently, the NWS uses a numerical probability of precipitation statement (POP) along with conventional verbal qualifiers to describe precipitation events. This type of forecast combines two very effective methods of probability forecasting; however, over the years, this office has received feedback from the public indicating that precipitation forecasts are often misunderstood. Other researchers have conducted surveys pertaining both to the misinterpretation of POP statements by the public forecaster (Murphy et al. 1980; Murphy and Brown 1983b; Sink 1993) and the misuse of POPs by forecasters (Vislocky et al. 1995). Because this project also addresses the issue of the effective use of POPs, adaptations of many of the questions used by these researchers were incorporated. The Sink (1993) survey most resembled the type of study conducted here, so comparisons of the final results with those of Sink were made when possible. In addition, many new questions were created to broaden the scope of the research and cover topics particularly relevant to the Juneau local area.
Questionnaires were completed by over 1100 Juneau residents mainly during the winter months (November 1996 through March 1997). They were distributed at various businesses, offices, schools, and popular community events such as the Ski Swap and the Boat Show. Considerable effort was made to sample people of different age groups, professions, and recreational interests as thoroughly as possible.
Three different questionnaires were created to cover the scope of the desired information while keeping each one concise enough to prevent the respondents from growing bored and not answering carefully. All questions were multiple choice and worded to request only one answer. Results from questions that were answered with more than one response were not included in the final tally. The one-page questionnaires contained between eight and twelve short questions with several lines of space left at the end for comments. No time restriction was imposed on respondents, and the atmosphere in which the people were polled was generally relaxed and conducive to thoughtful responses.
Listed below are the main topics covered by this project.
A copy of the questionnaires used in the project can be obtained by contacting the authors.
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