Area Forecast Discussion - Southeastern
FXAK67 PAJK 301301
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
501 AM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A QUASI
STATIONARY LOW STILL OVER THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES: WARM FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE, COLD FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WITH TRIPLE POINT NEAR YAKUTAT BAY AND OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING BACK TO KODIAK, ROTATING AROUND THE KODIAK LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH A
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW JUST ENTERING THE CENTRAL AK GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS ADVANCING LOW WILL AID IN SHIFTING THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE LOW MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN MORE CATEGORICAL POPS
TO THE PANHANDLE LATE BUT BEFORE THAT THE WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
BRING CHANCE PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH MORE CATEGORICAL
PRECIP TO THE YAKUTAT AREA. THE LOW POPS MAINLY DUE TO WEAKENING
FORCING AS THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE GULF RIDGE AND MOVING
OVERLAND. WHILE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE STILL EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
ADVANCING WAVES. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SKIES WILL HAVE MORE BREAKS DUE
TO THE RIDGE MOVING INLAND. COASTAL AREAS GETTING SOME INLAND
MORNING PUSH OF MARINE LAYER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE BROKEN THAN TYPICAL SOLID
MARINE DECK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERLAND. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WITH SMALL CRAFT
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL. OTHER WISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT. STRONGEST
OVERLAND WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SKAGWAY AND ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST, BUT STILL WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER 850 MB AIR MASS MOVING IN.

MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST FEW RUNS AND STILL
INITIALIZING THE CURRENT SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL. ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO PRESS AND WINDS USING 00Z EC/NAM AS A BASIS. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE IS POP WITH BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. BLENDED IN SREF TO CURRENT GRIDS AS IT WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN THE SPOTTIER NAM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WINDS WITH BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR POP.
.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SFC LOW MOVING NE ACROSS THE
GULF WED INTO THU AS MODEL SOLUTIONS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
GFS AND EC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION WHILE GEM
SLIGHTLY W AND NAM FURTHER E. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS
WELL...SO ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS EC/GFS SOLUTION TO
PRESSURE FIELD. THIS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WITH A NEAR GALE FORCE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP WED INTO THU ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INSIDE
WATERS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SE AK.
MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE
1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. PRECIP TOTALS WILL DIMINISH AWAY
FROM THE LOW WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1/4 INCH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND CAPE SUCKLING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND HEADING
THU...BUT WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH FRI. RIDGE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING FRI AIDING IN
DIMINISHING SHOWER TREND AND BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500MB MODEL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE
580DM WELL INTO INTERIOR AK. NAEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS 2-4 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ECENS 1-2 ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. 

&&

$$

PRB/BC

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